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Transcript

Hi everyone. Welcome. Thank you for joining today’s session focused on digital trends and preparing for the future. My name is Katie Yoder and I work in ÃÛ¶¹ÊÓƵ’s ultimate success Department as a senior strategist and I’ll be your host for today’s session.

Our subject matter expert and presenter today is my colleague SKA Nicholas who will be taking us through this content that she has prepared. First and foremost I want to thank everyone for taking the time to join today and I want to note that this session is being recorded. A link to the recording as well as the presentation itself will be sent out to everyone who registered so you will have that to reflect back on today. This live webinar is listen only format but please do feel free to share any questions that you might have into either the chat or the Q&A pod as we go through the content and should we have time at the end we’ll try to surface and speak to some of those questions that have come through. If there’s anything we don’t get to I will encourage you to reach out to ÃÛ¶¹ÊÓƵ Account team for a follow-up there.

All right so one more note just note that at the end of the session as we start Q&A there will be a really brief two question poll that will launch just to get your feedback on this session and for your ideas on how to shape some future sessions going forward so just know that’ll be popping up towards the end but without further ado I think we can go ahead and shift things over to SK today to take us through our session. Thanks Katie and thanks everyone for being here. As Katie said I’m SK Nicholas I’m a principal strategist on our field engineering team within Ultimate Success. Part of my role includes trend forecasting and helping our customers to prepare for their customers needs as trends change and cycles change and that’s what we’re gonna be talking about today. We’re going to review some of the trends that we’re seeing so far in 2025 and a little bit of late 2024 we’re not that far out of it yet. Share some insights on expectations for the rest of the year and talk through how these trends may impact you, your responsibilities, your workloads, reporting, generally how it affects our customers, ÃÛ¶¹ÊÓƵ’s customers business. The first section we’re going to talk about market changes. The theme mostly being around how fast the market is changing. A lot of content in here will be America specific but some of the data is also sourced from Europe as well so this really is global market changes and what impact it’s having on customers. The second section we’re going to talk about how those market changes are impacting consumer reference and consumer purchase behaviors. How can we get more in tune with what our customers are doing? How are the purchase patterns changing in response to these market shifts? And the third section is going to be a little bit more tactical on what recommendations we have in terms of strategic planning to better prepare your business and meet your customers where they are. I do want to say before we kind of dive into content I would like Katie said encourage any questions to go in the Q&A but also utilize the chat to talk to each other if you have thoughts or feedback as we’re going through feel free to use it. If you have things you know maybe the way it’s affecting your business or your industry specifically feel free to use that chat to kind of communicate with each other and also at the same time too I think we can all learn from each other. I want to ground us a little bit before we dive into this because some of this content is going to be kind of big complicated kind of hairball subjects like really big economic concepts and things that we don’t necessarily have ultimate control over. Where I want all of us to focus today is on your customer so there is no business without a customer and this is a Peter Drucker quote you’ve probably heard it before that a business purpose is to create and serve their customer. So we’re going to talk about these big market shifts but we’re going to talk about them in terms of how are they affecting your customers. We’re going to talk about how consumer preferences are changing and then how you can meet your customer better. How this creates kind of a guiding force for strategic planning and for business decisions or when you’re prioritizing any kind of upcoming work whether that’s cases or migrations or anything pausing and having your team reflect on how does this affect our customer. How does this make their experience better, different, more efficient. I think this is especially important right now as many businesses are focusing on efficiency. It’s kind of a key pillar. It is very important for us to focus on operational efficiency making things more efficient but making sure that we’re making them more efficient without sacrificing that customer experience. We can’t change everything internally if it’s going to affect the end customers ultimate opinion or preferences about the business itself. So keep that in mind as we’re going through some of this content. We’re going to start talking about these rapid market changes. It feels, sorry is somebody having trouble seeing the content? Kate, do you want me to, is it working? It is showing the majority of us. Yeah. Okay. Just making sure. The advice is just to jump out and hop back in. It should be fine. Thanks for checking.

This would get a little loosey-goosey if no one could see it. So anyway, rapid market changes. I think we can all just as human beings feel this as people who work for companies we can feel this. Things are changing very quickly. This is affecting consumer spending and it does have really big impacts on growth plans for businesses, technology adoption, and the need for agility in your work practices. The first way that we’re seeing this is shrinking spending. So there is still very mixed economic sentiment globally. It’s impacting consumer spending. More consumers indicating they intend to spend less and save more. And that doesn’t, these are intentional numbers. We’re not necessarily seeing that show up in really huge ways but the discussion is ever-present. And people, consumers are making changes in the way that they’re spending. Whether they’re buying slightly less or changing brands or shifting what they think of as a necessity in general. Which leads us to shifting priorities. So of course businesses and consumers are going to shift their priorities in times of economic turbulence. They’re going to spend differently. They’re going to look for different products. They’re going to take care of their families in different ways. And we need to be prepared to see how that’s affecting them. How they’re changing what they’re spending and respond appropriately. I’ll share a little bit of data about shrinking spending and shifting priorities in just a moment. But one way that we can see this is in the past two quarters. The purchase of goods actually went up. So people actually purchasing physical things went up slightly. But the purchase of services of any kind went down pretty substantially. This is true even here in the US during tax season. That’s a kind of service that people have decided to spend less on this year than in previous years. And the third one it’s something I think all of us have heard a lot about lately in tariffs. The US consumers are being affected by new and changing tariffs. So the uncertainty around this. The uncertainty about what it means for product availability, product cost. And how our consumers are going to change their spending. Something that is ever-present and could make for really important changes in the way you’re communicating to your customers. But also in what you have available for customers.

So why is this happening? There’s really three reasons for this. The first one is that inflation is happening. So spending on essential items, what is considered essential items, has risen to its highest level. Largely attributed to the impact of inflation on prices. This is true globally but much more present currently in the US. This is coming with the fact that consumer debt is at its highest ever and most of that consumer debt consists of also essential items. So we’re talking about medical care and food and housing are creating a significant portion of consumer debt. The people just have less to spend on what are semi discretionary or non essential items. At the same time real wage growth is up. There’s relatively low unemployment globally but consumer spending isn’t necessarily taking off in the same way that it has in other periods where that wage growth and low unemployment has been seen before. It’s a little bit subdued because people are uncertain. People have questions about where things will be. There’s a lot more kind of dynamism in the market and it’s making them feel uncertain about how to proceed and they’re saving more spending less. Another thing here is just that there’s slightly slower growth. We’ve been in a period for many years of very quick growth where we’re seeing, we’re comparing everything year over year to really consistently huge gains in corporations and in individual wages year over year. That’s gonna slow a little bit is what most people are expecting in 2025 and 2026 with some economy of even contracting, slower trade expected and demand shock from tariff policy. So while this the slow growth doesn’t necessarily impact consumers really directly, it does impact you all in the way that expectations are set within corporations. We set goals ahead of time, we think about this year over year growth and changes and we have to think about how to kind of make compromises and kind of put make these two concepts live together that people are spending less but there’s still a real expectation to grow revenue and income at companies. So some of the ways that we’re seeing shrinking spending show up in the market. I think this is really great data coming from McKinsey. They track it every quarter. This is the most recent one that was coming out in February 2025 hoping that we get the next quarter very soon. We’re gonna start with some European data and this is around the most common way that people are saying they’re shrinking spending which is what’s considered a trade down. So a trade down is they know that they need this item, how are they going to get it but they’re going to somehow spend less on it. This is a split across a few different countries. Adjusting quantity or pack size, changing the brand to a lower price or private label, changing retailers, delaying purchase or using buy now pay later. I think this is interesting because the data really isn’t what I expected. I would expect that just as a personal note that people would change the brand to a lower price or private label which isn’t really what we’re seeing. Those numbers are significantly lower than changing retailers for a price or a discount or to adjust the quantity or pack size. So what that means is they’re willing to pay the same pay the same amount for less or they are willing to change the way that they actually purchase by maybe going to a different store or shopping online or looking for some kind of discount rather than just buying a lower price or private label item. I think that’s really interesting looking at this across the next slide will be around income level and age range or country. I think provides a lot of context into what kind of offers can we provide to our customers, what kind of testing which should we be doing with our customers to really better understand what trading down or what shrinking their spending looks like for them, how they’re actually applying that into their life on things that are essential items for their household. Another thing to note here is across the US and Europe here this data remained about the same between Q4 of 2024 and Q1 of 2025. So it looks like there’s not a huge change here you can see you know minus two plus two relatively stable but Q4 of 2024 was the highest that this had been in many many years. So while it looks relatively stable when you’re seeing these minus two minus four not a lot of change quarter to quarter it’s still overall at a very high rate of trading down overall. This is kind of looking at similar data but comparing across different income brackets versus different age groups and I think this is also really interesting the different age groups had no statistical significance in terms of how they traded down. It was it was virtually the same no matter the income the low income, medium, high income they were trading down at about the same rates. That is very different when you look at age range instead of income bracket you can see Gen Z off the charts there compared to some of the older generation. So it’s really looking at Gen Z and Millennials are the ones that this specifically applies to which I think also provides some really great context into the type of offers that you can create or next best decisioning when you’re communicating with your customers.

Let’s look at some US data I really like this quote I think it captures the sentiment of the data really well. We spent a lot last year so now we’re buying actual necessities we’re looking for good deals we want to be intentional with our money and ensure that our money goes as far as possible as far as it can possibly go. We need to be able to afford to live in the current economy which doesn’t seem to be changing so we need to do our best to tighten our belts. I think it seems like this is here to stay we’re not sure we’re going to do what we can and also what we can see people are still spending on which is necessities and finding ways to still get those into their household. You can see this didn’t change really quarter over quarter very much the highest being down two points in options like a firm or buy now pay later but still overall very high and consistent relatively consistent with the European data with the difference being they’re slightly more likely to adjust the quantity pack size or to delay purchase in the US so to purchase it a little bit later rather than slightly more likely to use the buy now pay later than the European options.

So how are these market changes actually affecting consumer purchase preference? How is this changing? They are changing their purchase preferences they’re shopping differently and we’re seeing really big swings in where they’re purchasing how they’re purchasing and what they’re purchasing.

The first way that we’re seeing this is what people are calling values aligned purchase so consumers are increasingly changing their spending patterns to reflect their values cutting back on shopping or changing favorite stores. This really hasn’t been the case the boomers gen x and millennials have actually been incredibly grand loyal shoppers they tend to purchase something from a certain place and kind of stay there and you can expect them to grow with the with the company that is not the case as much anymore we’re seeing a lot less brand loyalty here where people are changing according to preference according to price but also very much according to the values of the company. Another thing we’re seeing is that they it’s a requirement for companies to market things that are very individually focused so how is this very specifically helping your individual customer where customers are spending is the personal wellness industry focused on very individualized solutions personalized wellness and wellness industry I think is the most obvious example of this but it definitely extends to other industries as well like services or even in retail it needs to be very marketed to your specific needs because we’ve just had a lifetime of significantly more options we want things to be personalized and individualized to us. The third thing we’re seeing is information overload this is especially prevalent in Europe where consumers are saying like that there’s just too much there’s too much information we don’t need all of this context we want less claims less information more transparency at the same time asking it to be paired down to just the potential information they don’t want to receive as many messages and kind of pair down I think about this especially with business trooper email data where people are saying there’s there’s just too much messaging coming my way I need to get less information that’s more individual to me and my preferences. Here are just kind of some facts that back this up 40 percent of Americans have shifted their spending to align with moral views this is self-reported data so 40 percent of the people who were surveyed are saying that they have shifted their spending to align with their moral views and 25 percent of Americans have said they stopped shopping favorite stores over political stances. I’m absolutely not going to make any recommendations today on if a company should be sharing political stances or how that should be shared I am going to say it’s something for us to be aware of it’s something to think about how consumers are expecting companies to show up and where they’re putting their dollars is significantly different this was these numbers were not even reported as recently as five years ago this is a significant change in the market and in the way that consumers are spending money. Another really big change that we’re seeing is that at least American consumers are starting to prefer in-store shopping again in-store shopping has been increasing year over year for the past three or four years and they say preferring online shopping is only at 28 percent so this is really interesting when we’re thinking about how we’re reaching our customers and how we’re creating connected experiences if this continues to grow perhaps because there’s better in-store offers or we see that people are just overall trying to create that community and shop in person this is really important for how we’re connecting data across sources how we’re incentivizing that connection across wherever your customer is shopping. These other three steps are more related to how things are individualized so 67 percent of consumers looking for ways to simplify their lives this was a 2024 statistic I think it’s still relevant the things that we’re spending money on are designed to simplify your life or make things easier for you. European consumers only bought from companies or brands that they quote completely trusted in 2024 so where Americans are leaning more into moral views political views aligning with values Europeans are really going the way of needing to have trust in the company whether that’s trust in the way they’re using customer data trust in the way they’re creating products but most of the same types of studies are indicating this idea of trust a lot more than values alignment but I think overall a similar concept and 52 percent of European consumers believe they’ll be healthier in the next five years than they are now so again really leaning into wellness culture individual optimization efficiency simplification. I know this is a little bit of an eye chart but it is really useful data to see kind of how consumer purchases are changing so consumers plan to cut back spending across several but not all discretionary categories the way this works the top left essentials bottom left semi-discretionary and the right is discretionary and this is a net content measure by percentage points so fresh produce meat and dairy baby supplies these kind of essential category you can see that on all categories except for a center store which is like shelf stable groceries or non-alcoholic beverages consumers are expecting to spend more on those categories this doesn’t mean I’m going to be very clear this doesn’t mean that those things are actually more expensive or showing up that way yet what it’s saying is that consumers expect that they will be or expect that they will be spending more on those categories which is really important for sentiment it’s really important for understanding why consumers might be shrinking their spending in other areas because they’re expecting that kind of these essential categories are going to take up more of their budget the semi-discretionary is relatively static for these first four not a huge change but you can see they are expecting to spend significantly less on toys kind of the same on beauty products but still in the negative here so well below zero of net intent vehicles going down a little bit from last quarter still negative but people are expecting to cut back in some of these categories I think discretionary is where this also gets pretty interesting I do want to draw your attention to the fact that the scale on the discretionary is different because there were no discretionary spending categories where the net intent went above zero so the scale goes from negative 30 to 20 versus negative 40 to zero and that’s a little confusing when you’re seeing them side by side they’re expecting to spend more on crew I think this is just a sign of the times this was measured from the middle of winter until we were starting to see spring peak around the corner expecting to spend a little bit less on pet care services a little bit more on international flights I think we’re seeing that vacation season come around but I think this has a lot of really good information for where consumers are focused where are they still expecting to spend money where the end travel is does seem to be one of those areas where they’re still looking relatively stable that is an area where consumers are still open to opening their wallet more than some of the areas they’re putting back on like entertainment at home or decorations and products for their home okay so that was a lot of eye charts it’s a lot of kind of detailed information but I want to bring it back to one how are we serving those customers when they have a lot of chaos going on when there’s a lot of kind of upheaval in market and what can you all do to better prepare for the future what are the areas that we should look at when we’re going into strategic planning season and this is kind of the three categories that I’ve broken it down into the first one being operational agility it’s going to be more important to be able to respond to your customers more quickly optimizing operational processes to prioritize efficiency but very importantly without sacrificing quality this is going to be business critical when there are rapid market changes whether that’s because a message went out that maybe didn’t land right with customers whether that’s because there was a huge shift in a certain type of product availability there’s lots of reasons right now lots of things on the table that might make you need to change content or change product availability change something going to your customers very quickly without sacrificing their experience how can we set you up to do that how can you use adobe tools to better do that the second one especially because we’re talking about everything being very customer driven shouldn’t be surprising like human centered how are we thinking about the human experience on the other end of your customer with every decision so every time you’re thinking about planning or you’re thinking about activation or you’re prioritizing use cases or prioritizing marketing spend or it spend whatever that is consider what experience the customer is having and find ways to make it more personal and connected so anticipating what your customers are feeling or will feel when they receive a message where they receive the message is going to be very important in this era where they’re expecting personalization they’re expecting individualized offers and things that will benefit them the third is dynamic reporting so when things are changing really quickly we need to consider that historical data or the traditional ways of reporting might not serve you as well it might not help to catch some of these customer trends it may not be as important as the traditional way of reporting but it’s important to consider how can you prioritize customer listening in your workflows in your planning and make your reporting more dynamic or so that you better understand your customers and what they are looking to see we’re going to dive into each of these a little bit let’s first talk about operational agility so again optimizing operational processes to prioritize efficiency without that of the same quality I think of these two concepts as being a little bit conflicting I think the the sweet spot would be finding a balance between these two the first is with really effective messaging how can you be agile and get the most current most accurate messaging to market while also prioritizing efficiency which sometimes doesn’t prioritize messaging quite as much so the type of marketing messaging that consumers are looking for is going to be different it’s going to change more quickly and you’re going to need to be agile in the way you’re creating and delivering you’re going to need to we have a wide variety of people on this webinar today so whether you’re in it or creative operations or marketing or data analysis you’re going to need to connect to the other parts of that you might not have before in order to create and deliver messaging and content to market it may need to be tweaked more often or in different ways than your typical workflow allows so thinking about how you can optimize those workflows if if you see something show up in the data or show up in any kind of feedback where you’re listening to your customers we recommend analyzing your review data sharing and creative processes to find optimizations that make you more agile i think this is especially true for review processes which is an area that we’re seeing a lot of our customers have challenges with these are areas that haven’t necessarily been optimized because they do require that kind of human touch they require a person on the other side whether that’s a legal review or an accessibility review or a creative director review whatever that is analyzing those finding ways that you can if not automate make them a lot more efficient will allow you to be more agile and kind of change your marketing and get new messaging to market more quickly and i touched on this a little bit but really make an effort to break down silos one area that we see this is in data analysis doesn’t always they share what they learn about the success of a campaign in terms of the campaign how successful an offer was or how successful an overall campaign was or series of campaigns but not necessarily what it means for creative so making sure you’re breaking down that silo from the data analysis analysis perspective and saying hey here’s what we are seeing is working really well on the creative and making sure that you get that back to create your creative team so that they know how to incorporate that into the next round and make that really efficient so that the best messaging makes it to market the other side of this is efficiency so finding efficiencies are going to make you more agile we hear you we know that many of you are facing challenges with really lean teams right now it’s not a hiring boom necessarily this is going to make efficiency even more important find ways to automate workflows and administrative work so that you can make sure that the people are spending time on really impactful human-centered work and find ways to measure your efficiency and output where you can making sure that you measure the impact of efficiency will make sure that you’re not spending all of your time creating efficiencies rather than the actual purpose of the business which is to serve the customer so making sure that one isn’t at the expense of the other and really focus that efficiency on back-end processes that will quickly change one area that we’re seeing this is around inventory management or pricing changes especially in the us right now where there’s a lot of dynamism in product availability and pricing so making sure that these automations and efficiencies are being found on that so you’re not needing to pull individuals out of other parts of their daily work to take care of things like this so finding ways to automate finding ways to make that a lot more efficient move on to the next one around being human centered so there’s really three pillars of this one being transparency connectivity and individual so transparency consumers are looking for transparency this is something that we’re seeing over and over again showing the data more retailers travel and we’re seeing this in v2 businesses sharing details on price breakdowns and supply chains so this is especially true in retail like clothing where they’re saying this is where we get it from this is why the prices are going up when prices change quickly consumers are going to want to know why especially if it’s a having a very strategic meeting about if sharing this information is right for your business how to share that information consider focused campaigns i i can speak personally i’ve definitely received a few emails from brands recently saying like hey we don’t have a choice our prices are going to go up sometime or on this specific date consider purchasing before then i think that is a really effective way to do it for certain businesses but thinking carefully about what they really want to see where they want to see it this could be on site this could be in checkout perhaps i’ve seen kind of an additional line item in checkout where it says duties and list that out let’s list out the tariff impact very specifically and i’m not absolutely saying that that is the best thing i am saying these are strategic conversations that need to be have when you’re thinking about the end customer’s experience what do they really want to see how much transparency they do they need into the process based on what it is that you are selling to them second here is connectivity so as customers are changing the way they purchase and they’re prioritizing in-store prioritizing shopping apps or kind of shopping around different retailers for sales connecting experiences across platforms is going to be even more important and this comes at a time where consumers are also much less likely to share data they are being a lot more stingy with their data they don’t necessarily want to opt in to receive a lot of offers so considering how to incentivize opting in in ways that you can track a single customer across different experiences and then don’t over message to customers at the time where they are looking for connectivity but they’re also looking for simplification build thoughtful suppression rules options to opt out really understand where they are so you can have lots of information across all the platforms but don’t use that to over message use that to carefully curate messages to your customers the last part here on human centered is being talked about this quite a bit already but they’re being a lot more choosy with their spending prioritizing personal wellness and growth so make sure that the messaging you’re choosing tie products and services very clearly to individual value and consider the direct benefits communicate them clearly and this is where it’s going to be really important to invest in robust testing on the content of your messaging and offers to see what resonates with lots of different attributes doesn’t mean just testing the offer it doesn’t mean just testing the creative it doesn’t mean just testing the order but very multi-dimensional testing will allow you to see what is really resonating with customers at a time where it’s a little bit hard to predict what they’re going to do all right the last kind of text heavy slide here around dynamic reporting so in times of we would recommend taking a look at shorter reporting cycles to spot any data discrepancy so thinking about if you’re regularly looking at a pretty long cycle before you’re reporting out to the business consider if for now it needs to happen a little more quickly and share things out in ways that could indicate a consumer preference change or a trend and rather than year-over-year reporting build directional data reporting into your standard processes so this means that year-over-year reporting might not be as beneficial right now because people we know are spending less overall it doesn’t necessarily indicate a challenge with what you’re doing but building directional data understanding what categories over time are changing or what products over time are changing will help you understand those consumer changes and have more meaningful and actionable reports this is also a really good time to prioritize profile cleanup and take the time to identify the appropriate attributes that you can make actionable so we’ve been in a season of kind of almost over collecting data is what we’re seeing so people are saying we want every piece of information that we possibly can about our customer even if they don’t necessarily have a specific plan on how to use it or how to tie it into an overall customer profile so make sure as you’re thinking about that you have clear identification of what attributes are going to be important how you’re going to use them and clean up those profiles to make very individualized messaging i mentioned this in testing ensure you’re considering all the aspects of an offer and this last one is around breaking down silos again so making sure that your shared data audience’s performance across your organization so all teams can build it into their decision making so across the business you can have a really good understanding of where your customers are what kind of messaging they want to see what they’re purchasing and what the next steps should be so i i wouldn’t kind of bring it back to this where there’s no business without a customer i think especially when we’re when we’re talking about adobe tools and tech tools we kind of get a little caught up sometimes in specific you know reports or use cases or how to use specific capabilities and i think what to take away from this is in times of uncertainty or when the market is changing really rapidly it becomes a lot more important to in every one of those conversations center your customer and remind yourself that when you’re prioritizing use cases or prioritizing capabilities not just to think about efficiency not just to think about the immediate value of it but to think about the long-term value of the customer and the experience that they are going to have on the other end of this i think we get a little removed from that sometimes and it’s a good way to kind of bring you back to center as you’re walking through next steps i am going to turn over open the q a pod and see if anyone has questions or thoughts all right and as we jump into q a just a reminder i am going to launch that quick two question poll for attendees if you have a moment just to give us a little bit of feedback that would be greatly appreciated one question s k that did come up when you were discussing shrinking spending was if there are any insights around customer loyalty and stickiness that perhaps businesses could use that consumer trend of overall spending less i know you did touch on some good points in the following slides but is there anything like top of mind you would highlight that a business should keep top of mind to address that i just want to make sure i understand to be more sticky in times that consumers are like changing what they’re purchasing or where they’re purchasing is that question like what businesses can do to kind of counteract the consumer spending less with overall to kind of just help them with that loyalty to their business or the stickiness of the customer yeah i i don’t know how much an individual business will be able to impact a customer spending overall but they can probably impact their share of the wallet so consumers are going to spend less in the coming year i think that is a pretty agreed upon thing but in order to keep them spending with you and not switching shops or switching brands or purchasing less from you i think really leaning into those human-centered messaging understanding what that customer really needs the individual value that provides to them is going to be really important and i think you get that through robust profiles making sure that your profiles are very clear and you understand where when how that customer is purchasing and also through really robust testing so not just throwing spaghetti at a wall kind of testing but thoughtful curated testing that allows you to see exactly what they are the most interested in and where they’re the most likely to shop and create kind of that connected experience nice thank you all right we’ll hang out one more moment to see if there’s any other questions that might come in either in the chat or qa pod give everyone a couple of minutes if there’s any thoughts around that and if not i know this was a lot to digest so if you do have any follow-up questions i’d encourage everyone to reach out to their adobe account team if there’s anything that they’d like to dig into further i just want to thank everyone again for their time today it was great having you here thank you eskay for sharing this content it’s very insightful thanks everyone for your time have a great rest of your day i’ll follow up with the presentation slides